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The Barrister Effect.


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Posted by Chuck Tribolet on December 04, 2006 at 18:06:42:

In Reply to: On the other hand ... (+) posted by Frank O on December 04, 2006 at 11:58:41:

That's what I call "The Barrister Effect" (barrister as in lawyer).
The mets tend to be conservative and forecast the higher end of the
range their models give them. As the forecasts become more
short-term, the range shrinks, and if the center of the range
stays constant, the high end gets lower, so the forecast gets
lower.

Another effect I've noticed is that weather systems rarely arrive
early, but regularly arrive late. Dunno the cause of that one.


Chuck



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