CopyRight @ 1997
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1. Energetics - general
2. Limiting Factors
3. Core populations
4. Hunter/Gatherer, Big game hunters, Agriculture, Technology
5. Tools/Technology + Resources / Energy
6. Symbiosis, predator\prey - standard definition
7. archologies and clean
8. communication + transport
9. automation
10. space
11. aggressiveness for defence or acquisition of resources
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1. Energetics, how a specie acquires and uses its food and
other resources, is a basis of ecology.
The hunter-gatherer ecology was relatively stable in
population size and resource utilization over a long period of
time. Population size and resource utilization are presently
undergoing drastic changes. Humans are in a transition between
stable ecologies. If the human specie survives, we will again
reach a state of stable population and resource utilization.
Energetics is the term used to describe all of the physical
resources utilized by an individual or organism. Energetics is
the basis of ecology and evolution because it describes
organismal life as a function of thermodynamics. Evolution is a
facet of entropy and probability in that the organization of all
living organisms is maintained by increasing the disorganization
of the organisms system. Ecology is that system. Probability
intrudes at the molecular level in that high enthalpy primal
molecules randomly combined to initially create life that could
maintain its organization and reproduce by degrading a resource
in the environment.
Evolution occurs when probability at the molecular level
creates a change in genetics appropriate to successful
exploitation of resources in the environment. In ecology or
evolution, the primary goal of a specie is considered to be
survival in an evolutionary sense. That includes not just
individual or group survival, but also continued reproductive
survival. At the level of the individual and the level of the
specie, reproduction must be the ultimate goal of the energetic
utilization strategy or the specie goes extinct.
2. LIMITING FACTORS
Since the ultimate goal of any species resource utilization
strategy must be survival in the evolutionary sense, the value of
resources can be quantified on the basis of their relationship to
survival. In any ecology will be limiting factors that determines
the carrying capacity of the environment.
The limiting factors in any ecology are the main selective
effects on the specie. This could be food, water, climate
extremes, usable cover from predators, disease or other factors
that are what limit the population of the specie.
A water supply, food supply or other limiting factor will
determine the number of any specie that any area will support. So
if a certain limiting resource, perhaps water, allows a certain
limited population number, perhaps 300 in a valley, the survival
value number of the resources of the valley, more particularly
water, would be 300 per generation. Each individual that
emigrated would add 1 to this number per generation. This is
strictly a genetic interpretation, but it serves the purpose of
this analysis. This means that from an individual's point of
view, they have a survival value of 1. Their (parents) and
siblings technically would have a value of .5 corresponding to
their genetic relatedness. More directly, since offspring are at
least 50% genetically related to the individual, two offspring in
a Hardy Weinberg population, should equal to at least 1 full
survival value. Potentially, since the survival of each
generation is one increment of evolution, actually 2 offspring is
equal to more than 1 survival unit, by the increment of evolution
that is each generation of survival.
The usefulness of this concept is that it allows the
description of any resource in terms significant to ecological
analysis. This allows analysis of food, forest, mineral, and
other commonly recognized resources as well as things like
money, position, beauty, health, talent, and family. For humans
these can all be critical factors of resources for survival
(they are the cost and payment of survival).
3. CORE POPULATIONS
Most species can be described as having core populations and
fringe populations. Core populations are those that inhabit the
part of "local" species' range that is what the specie is
specifically adapted to. Fringe populations are the groups that
survive outside the primary ecology of the specie. To humans,
this relates to both the physical ecology and the social ecology.
The importance of this description is to help convey an
understanding about the human condition and how things actually
work.
At present, humans are identified by their cultures. If
individuals or a group leaves the core population, they may take
little of their culture with them. Some core populations
continually expand genetically because they tend to have an
ongoing dispersal from the core population. The core populations
have an out flow, but no genetic inflow.
There are some occupations that have a predictable mortality
rate, such as the military or maritime occupations. There are
local ecologys that produce cyclic catastrophes, such as areas
prone to flooding or earthquakes. There are social conditions,
such as wealth verses poverty. There is life within a well
defined social structure, such as religion or any politically
dictated social structure verses life oriented around a single
family structure with an isolated culture. Many of the survival
strategies of the core and fringe populations may differ. The
issue though, is survival.
In a fishing village there may be a local population that
has existed for hundreds of years and that has been relatively
stable, ecologically speaking, with a predictable mortality rate
from the sea. This is a local population that has a chance to
adapt to a local set of conditions and has developed strategies
to cope with the local environment. Compare that to the
populations found on river deltas around the world. Their
ecological situation is like that of mosquitos. One study
showed that in the study area, the population of the entire
stream was repopulated from the few mosquitos that survived the
winter at the head of the stream. Lower down, the eggs were much
more likely to just be swept away. The population at the head of
the stream was the reproductive core population. Those down
below were in a fringe of the ecology. Few successfully
reproduce. Under tradition and population pressure, humans
have populated fringe areas, such as river deltas, which are
repopulated more by immigration than from reproductive success.
This is a part of the human condition.
4a. THE ENERGERTIC HABITS OF THE
PALEOLITHIC COLLECTOR/GATHERER/HUNTER
For six million years the hunter-gatherer ecology was
stable. An organism foraging for plant food and doing small game
hunting could have survived indefinitely without overwhelming the
ecology. This is not to say that there was no local damage. On
the contrary, as suggested by studies of pinion nut hunters,
humans probably had drastic effects on local environments. Still,
population density was low enough that the tribe moved on and the
environment recovered. Their techniques were not effective enough
to cause irreperable damage. Certainly, they did cause
extinctions of some particularly vulnerable local species. In any
case, their effects were negligable compared to the ongoing
changes to the polar icepacks.
Calling humans generalists refers to what resources they can
utilize. Compared to other animals, we can eat just about
anything. Not only that, there is also a wide variation in what
food was utilized in different local populations. Populations one
place might depend on resources non-existent for other
populations. This is true of tools and shelter as well. Human
tribes came up with local solutions dictated by local needs,
materials and techniques.
The main components of human energetic resources were food,
shelter, clothing, tools, techniques and fire. Tribal humans well
know the plants and animals of their world. They know their
location and seasonal abundences. It seems that the digging stick
produced more calories than the spear, but most resources were
exploited. Also depending on local circumstances there would
likely be variations in the role of each sex in obtaining food.
It appears that in the commonest situation, the female
specialized more towards obtaining vegetable foods that provided
most of the calories and the men specialized more towards
obtaining meat foods that provided more protein.
Where necessary, hunter-gatherer humans built simple
shelters or utilized natural features for protection from the
elements and predators. The loin cloth probably developed for
protection from bushes, but the concept of clothing to avoid
chill probably came easily. All things considered, early tribal
humans probably used mud for sun protection as the natives of the
Americas do.
The ecology of the hunter/gatherer was based on the
potential of energy efficient bipedalism. This was both to cover
large areas with widely dispersed food or water resources and for
following and overtaking game. The exceptional eye sight that our
ancestors developed for living in trees, was now used for high
quality scanning of the area foraged. The great dexterity of the
fingers allowed collecting of food that was not concentrated.
During the later parts of this ecology, fire was used for
warmth, cooking, protection and sometimes for working materials.
Fire was one of the tools that eventually led to significant
changes in human ecology.
4b. BIG GAME HUNTERS
After six million years of mental and technical development
in that ecology, humans developed the tools, techniques and
potentials to hunt big game such as horse, rhino, camel, giraffe
and even the great mammoth. The weapons were still primarily
stone, but the techniques to make and use them had changed. This
really represented changes in human potentials. Humans were able
to communicate and coordinate well enough to be able to take down
big animals. Then they shared the catch. The communication
necessary for group hunting and the corrosponding social
cooperation represent the potentials of the human neo-cortex that
evolved during the previous millions of years.
These improved tools and techniques opened up new
territories and niches. Of course, the niches of the big game
hunters tended to be short lived. Their strategies tended to be
extremely destructive. Food preservation techniques were limited
such that a great deal of food was wasted. Prey populations were
quickly depleted or exterminated. It has been suggested that it
was humans that drove the mammoth to extinction and that it could
have only taken 500 years. Richard Leaky says that this period
lasted roughly between the period 400,000 to 70,000 years ago.
4c EARLY FARMERS
It seems that it was the same intellectual potentials that
had allowed big game hunting, that led to agriculture. As the big
game animals became scarce, some of the local populations
discovered early concepts of agriculture. It was probably a
conservative reaction in responce to the visable depletion of the
environment. In ways this ecology was very similar to the ecology
before the big game hunters, because the tribes were still mobile
and opportunistic. The most advanced forms of neolithic farming
include slash and burn to prepare the site. Within a few years,
that method inevidably depletes the soil and the tribe must move
on.
Considering lack of agricultural sophistication, crop variety
and irrigation, it is believed that early agriculture would not
have developed in valleys. It would be too dry. Instead it
probably developed on hillsides. A progression to terrace farming
and irrigation can be easily extrapolated. Crops developed and
new ones were domesticated. Within 70,000 years the mobile tribal
neolithic farmer was replaced by the sedentary civil
agriculturist.
5 TECHNOLOGY
The value of knowledge as a resource is defined by what it
provides to the individual or group for survival, especially over
time. Knowledge may bestow resources to overcome limitations
within the ecology where survival would be impossible otherwise.
As such, the value of the knowledge may be described
quantitatively. Without knowledge of stone tools or fire, humans
could not have exploited much of the world that they have.
Technology refers to the use of tools and the methods of
using them, specifically tools far more complex than handmade
stone or metal implements. This includes tools that produce far
more power than muscle can and tools that make choices. Also
tools for making other tools. One of the main focuses of
evolution, during much of human development, has been for the
ability to make and use tools. Humans have coevolved with their
tools. Anthropologists have described human development in terms
of the complexity of the tools that they could produce. Recently,
humans have developed qualitatively new types of tools and
techniques. In biological terms, technological development
represents another unprecedented revolution. Technology could be
considered as an institution, but it is so important that it
must be examined as basic to human energetic strategies.
Carl Sagan used the term "exogenetic knowledge" to refer to
all the information used by an organism that is not transmitted
by the genetic code. As it relates to energetics, what is
transmitted is Data such as the nature of a situation or the
location of a resource, or else it can be about a technique that
can be used to effect a situation or produce a usable resource
out of what is useless without the technique. Considering the
selective requirements leading to communication, where
communication exists, it is a vital feature for the species
survival in its ecology.
A bee can use dance to describe the location of food. Eric
von Frisch's elegant work described the large amount of data that
bees can communicate, yet they communicate little or no
technique. Many vertebrates acquire extensive data and technique
by communication. It can be memories of seasonal abundance, use
of stones or sticks for obtaining food or even the use of chewed
leaves as a sponge to pick up water, as some primates do. All can
be taught or discovered and so are exogenetic knowledge. For many
organisms, human especially, this knowledge is vital directly and
indirectly for resource acquisition.
Unfortunately, from the point of view of this book, some of
the most critical aspects of future technology are not yet
determined. It is assumed that certain technologies will be
produced, otherwise it will be very hard for humans to develop a
new niche. The two most critical questions seem to be about what
energy source we can develop to replace petroleum fuels. The
future will largely be determined by the efficiency, portability,
cost, size and cleanliness of the power sources that we can
develop. Another important question is about the potential of
automation. This eventually relates to the work ethic and the
concept of leisure. Eventually the energetics and resource
question will probably relate to how much we can exploit
resources in space.
If the primary power plants of the future are expensive and
centralized, they will present the potential for a concentration
of wealth that could cause some form of warfare analogous to the
creation of the cities. That is also to say that it would be
easier for ruling classes to rise and persist if the energy
supply or some other basic technology can be monopolized. On the
other hand, if the power supply is very simple or portable, it
could lead to temporary intentional social isolation and
fragmentation similar to a tribal society. It will be something
to see, rather than to predict.
Methanol, hydrogen, photo-cells, wind and other sources will
become important in many situations as hydro-electric power
already has. Each can be evaluated in biological terms.
Many of the problems of resources are solvable by even
present technologies, but most solutions require great amounts of
concentrated energy as either electricity or heat. We can produce
unlimited amounts of fertilizers, plastics, aluminum, titanium,
glass, ceramics and even gold, but it is all at the cost of
concentrated energy.
Besides the resources that we can produce with technology,
we will be able to utilize some natural resources. Since this
covers a large time frame, it must be considered that we will be
dependent primarily on resources that are extremely abundant or
else resources that are naturally renewable. Renewable resources
would be things like forests, fisheries and agricultural land. A
renewable resource can be:
unexploited
underexploited
exploited at maintenance level
over-exploited to reduction of stocks
over-exploitation to destruction
A limitless resource would be things like solar energy,
bauxite for aluminum, iron, carbon, and concrete. Production
cannot produce uncontrollable wastes. Closed systems for waste
recycling will be utilized, such as water hyacinth for sewage
treatment and bacteria for garbage recycling. Both processes
cleanly dispose of waste while producing other resources. Human
ingenuity, applied to maintainable solutions for the physical
features necessary to a stable ecology will rise to new heights.
END 5
6 Human Symbiotic relationships
The development of agriculture represents the transition of
humans from predators to symbiants. Instead of just hunting
animals and plants, we nurtured and husbanded them. We promoted
animal crops by protecting them from predators and providing them
with food and water. We have promoted plant crops by planting
them as well as providing protection, water and nutrients. We
have even manipulated different species to produce desirable
hybrids. The navel orange is a good example of a plant specie
that would not exist without humans. The future of symbiosis for
humans an important consideration, especially in light of the
potential of genetic engineering.
END 6
7 ARCHOLOGIES AND CLEAN
Long before history, humans had to deal with both pollution
and damage to the ecology. Now that there are more humans and our
individual resource appetite has gone way up, it becomes a much
greater problem. It used to be that the goal was to conquer
nature. Now we must try to save her. Nature on this world is our
life support system. It gives us our food, water, air and
protection. It is the only real thing that we have got.
It has been shown that tribes that collect pinion nuts can
cause great changes in the environment. Enough so, that the
tribes could no longer subsist in that area. Studies of fossil
pollen showed a complete change in the ecology within 200 years.
Neolithic humans, by their big game hunting, exterminated
probably half of the species of mammals that existed 500,000
years ago. In historic times, the devastation has continued and
accelerated. Now, due to the effects of fossil fuels and damage
to the ozone, we may sterilize the earth. There are many other
dangers as well and new technologies will potentially produce
even more. Much present and future technology must be specialized
for cleaning up pollution.
The real solution to the pollution problem must eventually
be the use of clean technologies that produce no pollution or
pollution in a form that is easily managed. Solar power and
fusion power are so attractive for this reason. Neither should
produce any waste problem. We have learned some of the
problems of fission wastes. Yet the French have shown techniques
to isolate it effectively enough that it could perhaps be called
clean power.
If one looks at the problems of humans existing as they do
now, for even one thousand years, it can be seen that all our
habits and technology must be relatively, quite clean.
A relatively closed system that can support human life is
called an archology. The earth is the first archology. A
territory that supports a tribe could be called an archology,
even though it is only relatively closed. A single family farm
could be called the same, with understanding that the designation
only refers to the needs of space and resource, generation by
generation. Socially, the most basic archology for modern humans
is the city with its food and natural resources. How non-
polluting or closed any system is, becomes a critical point. In
the future, cities will have to be archologies. Our ability to
develop archologies will be a major factor effecting population
size. How many people the Earth archology can support will partly
depend on how clean our habits are.
It seems worth mentioning some concepts of archologies:
1. A simple, low tech agricultural community could be an
archology for as long as the soil lasted. In the case of terrace
farms or flood river valleys, that could be indeterminate.
Still, most agricultural land has a very limited life. The term
"low tech agricultural" refers to a system where wastes are
organic and can be recycled through the land.
2. To varying extents a city can be an archology. The
limitations would be described by what is imported and the wastes
produced. Present cities are usually far from being archologies.
Still, using a few simple descriptions of a model of a city could
show how a city could become a far more closed and clean system.
For the sake of simplicity, only simple technological concepts
are described. All of these systems will continue to develop.
If the city:
Used a clean energy source such as some form of solar,
tidal, fusion or clean nuclear.
Used hydroponics or some other non-depletive form of
farming, for food production.
Recycled completely. All inorganics such as metal and
plastics collected for re-use or decomposition. All organics
recycled and cleaned by biological processing, such that they are
then safe and absorbable by the environment.
This model loosely describes a city in the future. It does
not need to discuss air, water or minerals, it just describes
some infra-structure.
3. The last archology to describe is the habitat model or
spaceship. Discussion of a completely self contained archology
usually refers to living or traveling in space. It would have to
have a power source that was practically unlimited and an
adequate mineral store. Recycling of organics, inorganics, air
and water would, have to be complete, to the degree that any
resource could be replenished.
Present understanding of physics suggests that humans
traveling or living in space will do so in archologies. It may
become quite practical to live in a completely created ecology,
regardless of where it is. Space may be ideal for humans.
As we live in situations of higher population density,
education about sanitation habits and techniques become more
important. Conceivably, many social situations may have to be
modified to reduce the spread of nuisance or critical diseases.
The institution that is presently called school, might have to
change to reduce some contacts. To a certain extent a school is
like a community, but it is not closed, so diseases that
come from outside the school are then spread through that
"community".
The population of the neolithic farmer expanded and
surpassed that of the tribal hunter and gatherers. The niche of
the city opened and the urbanites surpassed the farmers and to a
certain extent replaced them. For a tribal group to become an
urban group, they must be able to tolerate an increased
population density. Our cities are fairly comfortable for our
present nature, but even present population densities are
causing a great deal of stress. A new form of the human niche
that could open is humans adapted to greater population
density or else exploitation of living space that is not
presently useful. What comes to mind first is space. There is
no practical limit to the available living space off of earth.
It will take the development of some interesting techniques and
we will almost certainly require some gravity for both
development and survival, but it is very likely to be an option
that will be developed. There is much energy and resource
available outside of the gravity wells. Another living space
niche that may get exploited would be underground. To many, it
would not be comfortable, but if a population developed the
habits and techniques, the size of the niche would be incredible.
All of these would be called archologies.
END 7
8 COMMUNICATION AND TRANSPORT
One of the major developments of human resource strategies
could be called communication and transportation. In general,
the consequences include the movement of individuals and
populations. The whole change that humans are presently
experiencing is largely based on the mixing of different peoples.
Early tribes migrated great distances on foot for many reasons.
Boats have always been integral to movement. The roots of
civilization were spread by ships in the colonizations of the
Megalithics and the Greeks. Animals and carts transported people,
materials and armies all over the world. Any innovation in
transportation technology, past or future, is a factor to be
considered in the picture of human development. Still, as far as
it effects human energetics, communication and transport mainly
refers to the transport of goods and techniques.
The consequences of the physical transport of resources is
to allow specialized groups survive by producing a local resource
(that by itself or combined with other local resources could not
support the population) and trading it with distant groups, for
resources not produced locally. It is almost as consequential as
finding the resource locally, because it constitutes removal of a
limiting factor to survival in the area. It may also constitute a
unique basis of survival strategy for a local community. A coal
mining town does not eat just local produce. Completely new
niches open up and promote human occupational specialization.
Trading for local minerals, obsidian, flint, pelts,
sea shells or other local products was an old habit before
agriculture. Many tribes traded and some, quite successfully,
specialized at it. Essentially it is a basis of the stratified
society. Each occupational caste trades their technical resource
rather than local resource, with the others. There are still many
resources and related communities, that are a local resource.
There is also the transport of ideas and techniques to be
considered. Since knowledge and belief is so important, this
description illuminates some important features of human
organization. It is far more than the transport of books or even
educational institutions.
Humans have some very dynamic and interesting features of
communication organization. This model is called the
communication source.
.... to be continued....
END #8
9 COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION
A specie or organism can be described by its resource
characteristics. When describing resource strategies, humans are
called tool users. We have come this far on two forms of
intelligence, our tool using abilities and our social abilities
such as communication and cooperation. Recently, our tool using
ability has led to changes in our overall resource strategies.
Some notable changes include increased occupational
specialization, large scale transport of resources, replacement
of muscle power by mechanical power, development of clean long
term resource strategies and other features. Because of this, we
live materially far better than most kings of history. In the
context of human existence, a hot shower is an unbelievable
luxury, not to mention freedom from hunger, disease and spoiled
food. We live well and we can do better... but.
What are the potentials and consequences, hazards, of our
technology. The potential are survival, comfort and growth. There
are numerous potential hazards. When creations are large,
machines or cities, failures will be large. What is really
important to consider though, as usual, is how humans perceive
the situation. Our technical potentials are great. Our ability to
use them to our advantage must still be learned.
There are some potentials and hazards to be mentioned.
The hazard that automation could endanger human survival by
allowing humans to get too lazy and apathetic to survive. It may
be that the wealth of automation may have the same effect on a
family that monetary wealth can have. If the family loses track
of vital family values, the wealth that they value can harm the
family. Besides that, there is the often encountered problem of
what stimulus will cause a person to actively use their
potentials. In the absence of survival demands, how do you teach
a person to develop?
Automation must be viewed in a moral context both as it
creates wealth and as it changes occupational characteristics.
Occupation is a great deal of how human societies have organized
themselves.
END 9
10 Space
With the proper technologies, space offers humans great
potential for energetic and other natural resources.
11 ENERGETICS AND AGGRESSIVENESS
Aggressiveness, in the sense of energetics or resources, is
an exploitive strategy that is designed to insure utilization of
all available resources. The resources may be natural,
cultivated, or human made and they are utilized to support the
individuals survival. This is one of those behaviors, perhaps
called greed, that like many paleolithic behaviors, has seemingly
no built in limiter. Perhaps because in many ways it is a new
trait.
Aggresive behavior in relation to humans may be used to
acquire or to protect resources. Territoriality is an aspect of
aggressive behavior that is for protecting the possession of a
resource or resource base.
Aggressiveness as an energetic acquisition strategy is to
get resources for reproductive success. It is also used,
especially by males, to compete for reproductive resources or
mates. Again it is an exploitive behavior for acquisition and
protection of a resource. It may or may not involve violence or
threat of violence. END 11
12 Current and Ongoing Changes
Another fundamental change in ecology relates to the
transition of our simple resource strategies into what we call
economics. The concentration of resources caused by agriculture
and the potentials of transportable resources, fostered both war
and politics for the control of the wealth that
was created. It is in the arena called economics that resource
strategy must now be examined. Discussion of energy, resource
availability and transport offer information that must be viewed
in the context of the philosophies and premises of the particular
economic system. In turn, all of these factors will relate to
technology, much of which is not yet developed.
This is not so much to describe some possible energy
source, but to describe the social consequence of different
types of resource bases. Consider centralized complex fusion
power plants, verses simple dispersed solar power, verses
some hypothetical small portable efficient clean power unit.
In the long run, each would promote different
social consequences. Similar consequences will be caused by
advanced production technologies including automation. To a large
extent, the characteristics of the technologies that we develop
will determine some of our characteristics in the future. The
more complex the techniques, the more we will tend, at least
initially, towards specialization and a corresponding social
form. Simpler, less centralized resource production strategies
would promote an environment socially similar to that of the
tribe.
END 12
SUMMARY
Hunter-gatherers still exist today, though the number of
people making their living that way is rapidly declining. It is
hard to say when the new ecology begins. Maybe with the creation
of the first cities or perhaps in 1984, when ARCO Solar One
produced electricity from solar energy for cheaper than
petroleum. Regardless, it is easy to describe some of the primary
features of the next stable ecology. When our energy source is
not limited or polluting like petroleum; when our food production
technique does not depend on destructive/depletive agricultural
processes and when our population density is relatively stable.
Either way, as Malthus pointed out, if humans survive they
will have achieved a balanced ecology over time, no matter what.
Within the framework of survival there can be many strategies,
but the goals and needs will stay the same.
The "technical" of the new ecology will be an extremely
broad ranged, highly social, complex tool using omnivore that
will use cooperation, extensive technique, and a wide variety of
senses and appendages for data acquisition and mechanical
manipulation. Education in school will be extensive. Humans will
have no predators and when not eating cultivated high energy
vegetable or synthesized food, will be the top predator of the
trophic levels. Large quantities of inorganic resources will be
utilized.
By definition, the critical element in the ecology of any
species is their energy source. To humans, this means an amazing
diversity of resources, acquired and utilized qualitatively
differently than by any other previous specie. Technical humans
have an enormous energy and resource appetite. Our civilization
has been built on the energy of agriculture and then petroleum.
The next stable ecology will be defined, to a certain extent, by
the form of the energy resources we utilize. The energy source
that we use, its technical limitations and potentials, will
define much about our culture.
Unfortunately, since it would make things simpler, humans
cannot be well defined, like most other species, by their
resource characteristics. By using new energy sources, perhaps
fusion and photo-voltaic cells, we will be able to provide the
energy that we will require. A stable ecology is largely defined
by a balance between energy utilization (population) and resource
availability. As far as it goes, with the requisite energy, we
already have the technology to produce any resource we desire.
Gold from sea water, aluminum, fresh water, glass, fertilizers,
light, fuel..., all can be produced from cheap, plentiful
resources.. if you have the requisite energy. Resource
limitations for humans will most likely depend on waste
management, space and choice more than simpler limitations such
as arable land or water availability.
The hunter-gatherer ecology was relatively stable in
population size and resource utilization over a long period of
time. Neither the ecology of the big game hunters or the
agricultural civil society was stable. Population size and
resource utilization are presently undergoing drastic changes.
Humans are in a transition between stable ecologies. If the human
specie survives, we will again reach a state of stable population
and resource utilization. This might be a relatively non-
technical ecology like the hunter/gatherer, but if humans retain
technology, the ecology will be very different from anything
before. No matter what, it ends up being a high energy system.
The transition has already shown a system where technology is
facilitated by specialization of tribes into occupational
sub-niches or castes. How to describe the next social form
in the context of occupation and resources, is yet to be seen.
It suffices to say that our technology is progressing
rapidly and appears to have the potential to supply the energy
and material resource requirements of the next stable ecologies
under a variety of conditions. Just as the ecology will
stabilize, so eventually will engineering technology, until there
is not a complete technological generation gap every decade or
so. As it has been in the past, tool using and technical ability
will continue to be one of the most important features of human
survival strategy.
The physical basis of our ecology, energetics and resources
will be dictated in the future primarily by what technologies we
can develop, especially energy plants. We actually have simple
forms of most of the techniques that we will require, dependant
on energy supply. Unless we are stupid or unlucky we will
probably solve that problem. More critical in many ways, is the
question of what will limit population growth to the resources
available.