Re: Are men really/statistical analysis


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Posted by Ken Kurtis on February 07, 2001 at 16:50:40:

In Reply to: Are men really 3 times as reckless as women? posted by Mark D on February 07, 2001 at 12:43:38:

(Mark D posted) "According to the stats, if you are a male, you are more likely to die from diving that a woman."

Actually, you can't draw that conclusion without knowing the total number of men who dive (and how many dives they do a year) and the same info for women.

What we have here are merely the raw numbers, or the numerator for a statistical analysis. What we're missing is the denominator or the total universe from which the numerator was drawn. Without the denomimnator, there's no way to draw an accurate conclusion about rates.

The same goes from drawing conclusions based on the breathing gas used. Since we don't know how many people dive air vs. nitrox vs. mix (and how many dives are done on each) you can't draw accurate conclusions on incidence rates.

For example, in 1999 we have 66 deaths on air, 3 on nitrox, 5 on mix. On the face of it, it would look like air is the most dangeorus, followed way down the list by mix, followed by nitrox. But without knowing the denominator, that could (note the word is COULD) be a faulty conslusion.

If (and note the disclaimer - I'M MAKING THESE NUMBERS UP) there were 21,780 air dives to yield 66 fatalities, 990 nitrox dives to yield 3 fatalities, and 1650 mix dives to yield 5 fatalities, they would each have the same accident rate of 1 death per 330 dives.

Without the denomintor, the raw numbers are tough to interpret correctly.

Ken Kurtis
NAUI Instr. #5936
Co-owner, Reef Seekers Dive Co.
Beverly Hills, Ca.


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