Posted by seahunt on June 23, 2006 at 19:54:47:|
In Reply to: Re: Dive hazard rating posted by Walt on June 23, 2006 at 16:20:43:
You're right in many ways, but not completely. True, it is more than singular if not completely exponential. Especially if you consider the next statement.
This is a weird perspective, but it has its own logic. It says that a 130 foot dive is no more dangerous than a 30 foot dive, until something goes wrong. This isn't completely correct, because though my interpretation of Ken's conclusions is that what kills is Things Going Wrong, that is not all it is about.
Still as you say, something going wrong, makes a huge increase in the immediate danger, because according to this view the danger level before something goes wrong is very similar or less than driving a car.
This is a model that considers only one factor in the equation. Perhaps the most important item, since it seems to be what leads to fatalities, but it is limited to that one factor. Still, it is interesting and really, when I am under water, I don't think of the danger any until something goes wrong and then this is the calculation I am making. It is only partly about the specific danger from what has gone wrong. It is also the simple fact that anything has gone wrong. Is that the highest priority for a diver to consider while down? Not the static conditions of the dive or the diver, that has already been factored in and accepted. Things only change to unacceptably dangerous when something changes, something Goes Wrong.