Re: A few things/stats & numbers

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Posted by Ken Kurtis on July 24, 2001 at 23:14:22:

In Reply to: A few things that I have been struggling with... posted by MHK on July 24, 2001 at 16:30:40:

First off, this is NOT to be construed as Michael-bashing.

(He wrote) "We ran into one of the instructors who lives and works at Casino Point this weekend. He told us that in the last 3 1/2 years he pulled 17 bodies from Casino Point alone . . . "

By "bodies" I assume you mean "dead." This sounds awfully high to me and seems simply not to be an accurate number. (Basically, it's an average of 1 death at Casino Point every 11 weeks since January of 1998. Just doesn't feel right.)

Canm you contact this guy for a bit more information? I'm also forwarding the info to Karl Huggins at the Chamber for clarification.

(Micahel also wrote) "DAN statistics [I believe] provide for .045 fatalities per year [somenone can verify that because I can't swear to it], but nonetheless we are so far above the per capita average fatality rate that it is ridiculous . . ."

We've covered this ground on this BBS before but perhaps iut's useful to go over it again. As I'm writing this, I'm referencing DAN's 2000 edition (based on 1998 data) of the annual accident report (can't find my 2001 edition).

Basically, DAN doesn't list an "deaths per . . ." rate. Although we know the number of fataltieis annually (83 in 1998 - averaging 89 deaths per year for 1990 - 1998), we don't know the total number of people that dive nor the total number of dives they make annually and can't compute a "deaths/diver" rate or a "deaths/dives made" rate. Likewise (same probablem with lackof a denominator), we can't do it for locals, which also means we can't say we're above or below the national average because no one can accurately know what these numbers are.

Specifically (again for 1998), California had 8 fatalties. Florida was #1 with 19, then California, then Hawaii - 6, and Massachusetts - 4.

And looking at those 8 fatalities and comparing them to the Catalina instructor's assertion of 17 deaths at Casino Point in the last 3 years (an average of 5 per year), I'd be surprised to learn that 5 of the 8 deaths in California in 1998 (63%) happened at Casino Point. (Not saying it couldn't have been this way, but it seems statistically unlikely.) Once again Michael, could you follow up with this guy, get him to give you more specifics, and share the results with the BBS?

Ken Kurtis
NAUI Instr. #5936
Co-owner, Reef Seekers Dive Co.
Beverly Hills, Ca.

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